How the Election was Won
Every federal election has some journalist indicating that this particular one is the most important election since World War Two. Perhaps the election of 2007 was.
THE PHONEY CAMPAIGN.
The campaign to elect a new Australian Government began on December 4th 2006 when Kevin Rudd succeeded in his attempt to push Kim Beasley out of the Opposition Leader’s chair after several months of gathering the numbers. Immediately the press got behind him, and the public opinion polls, enamoured with a new face and fresh approach shot him to unparallel heights for an opposition leader. Try as he may, Prime Minister John Howard could do nothing to dint the opinion polls, and the end of 2007 drew near with the Government looking as if it would suffer the greatest defeat in its history by Christmas.
Mr Howard resisted the jibes to call an election until the last possible moment, hoping that Kevin Rudd would stumble or the public would weary of him and turn to the tried and tested. But the opinion polls continued to rise and there were no stumbles. Kevin Rudd showed good focus, a calm approach and a positive message. The public accepted even the revelation of his visiting a New York Strip club while intoxicated.
In his own camp, Mr Howard was under pressure. During the APEC talks in Sydney, Alexander Downer, with Howard’s approval, convened a Cabinet meeting to discuss the disastrous polls. Everyone felt a new leader was needed but none would call for the change, including the heir apparent, Peter Costello. John Howard publicly announced (no secret deals like the Hawke-Keating fiasco!) that he intended to win the election, then at some time near the end of that term hand over the Prime Ministership to Peter Costello. So November 24th was nominated and the six weeks real election campaign started.
THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN.
To everyone’s surprise, including the journalists and Kevin Rudd, John Howard bolted out of the starting gate with a massive $34 Billion tax policy, the largest in Australia’s history. There were generous tax-savings for everyone, a lifting of the level to $16,000 before any tax would be paid benefiting most low-income earners. There were tax benefits for people to return to work or to work part time thus lowering the already amazingly low level of unemployment. High-income earners would also have their tax rate lowered encouraging highly talented people not to move overseas. This fulfils Howard’s vision of giving people opportunity and choice to make their way in this world, and not be dependent upon the Government.
For the first time Rudd was on the back foot as journalists peppered with demands he releases his Tax policy. With a telecast leaders’ debate coming a week after the call for the election, Kevin Rudd hastily announced his tax Policy. It was little different from the Government’s. He had earned the name “Me Too” among the media by indicating that his economically conservative policies would not markedly differ from the Government’s. Now the tax policy was basically the same, except for taking a few billion from the richest people and giving it as subsidies for school children’s books, broadband, Internet and laptop computer costs, provided the parents had purchased them first. Kevin Rudd’s vision was for educational opportunity rather then employment opportunity. He wanted Australians to be a wired community. There was to be no radical left-wing ideology in contrast to the Government’s position. Kevin Rudd had learned that Australians did not buy that. The exits of Paul Keating and Mark Latham had left on him a lasting impression.
Rudd is naturally conservative and by agreeing to also promote Howard’s economic plans he will limit Labor’s economic future. He speaks of an educational revolution, of the need for infrastructure renewal and for health restructure. To do this he needs the $34 billion tax windfall but in spending $31 billion in matching Howard’s promises, he has limited a future Labor Government to implementing John Howard’s vision. Even if defeated John Howard would be determining the Government’s Budget.
THE REST OF THE CAMPAIGN.
Although the leaders criss-crossed the country in a growing example of a Presidential style campaign, Governments change according to the grass root electorate efforts. In this election, both parties showed some ill-discipline being embarrassed by some bad behaviour and some dishonest campaigning. Recent changes in politicians printing and postage allowances meant that the incumbent members would flood the letter boxes with junk mail and their opponents tried their hardest to outspend them. Local radio, newspapers and television sprouted campaign material, babies were kissed, doors were knocked and promises made. One baby was even kissed by both leaders!
The Coalition Government was accused of being tired and out of touch, and the opposition was accused a planning a frontbench where 70% of the cabinet were former trade union officials. The trade unions kept silent. They hated some of Rudd’s policies, but they had learnt that trade union presence in an election would simply hand the victory to the conservatives. “We will get Rudd later when Howard has gone”, said the leader of NSW Unions.
Gradually it became clear that the issue was whether Australia would decide whether the “use by” date had expired for Prime Minister John Howard and his Coalition team or whether the electorate was prepared to endorse a Labor Party portrayed as ‘union heavy’, lacking political experience and economic credibility. The polls showed Labor primary vote was high in 2007, not just its two-party preferred vote. But, most significantly, there was no volatility in the polls. Over eight months, the Galaxy poll saw the swing at 5%, several have shown the swing at 6%, but most have shown a swing of 7%.
Rev Rod Benson wrote, “One of the more interesting political developments since the late 1970s has been the rise of serious Christian interest in politics and the political process. In Australia, this is evident in the emergence of self-confessed Christian parties such as Fred Nile’s Christian Democratic Party; in the willingness of high-profile politicians to freely acknowledge their personal Christian commitment and its influence on public policy (from Kevin Andrews to Kevin Rudd); and the growth of well-resourced and influential faith-based lobbies such as the Festival of Light, the Australian Catholic Bishops Conference and the Australian Christian Lobby. This has been accompanied, in the lead-up to the 2007 federal election, by a flurry of Christian interest in surveying party policies and the stance of selected politicians on key issues. Indeed the production and distribution of these “sin surveys” could almost be considered a growth industry.”
These surveys themselves, have come under close scrutiny because of the divergent Christian views of what is valued more highly by the Church community.
THE LEADERS.
Australians considered the leadership qualifications of John Howard and Kevin Rudd as to whom, plus their colleagues, was best suited to lead Australia for the next four years. I count it a privilege to know both of these men well. John Howard I have known closely for twenty years, and eleven years ago he asked me to be an advisor to him on a whole range of social policies. I have been a member of two Prime Minister’s Task Forces. I am currently a member of a Prime Minister’s Board of Community Business Partnerships. He spoke for me often at Wesley Mission functions and is a practicing Church attending Christian.
Kevin Rudd only entered Parliament in 1998 as John Howard was commencing his second term as Prime Minister. Kevin Rudd had worked in the public service for a Queensland Labor Government and for the Australian diplomatic service. He is also a practicing, church attending Christian. He spoke also at Wesley Mission where I asked him about his commitment to Jesus Christ. He gave a very full and satisfying reply and traced the history of significant Christians in the Trade Union Movement and the Australian Labor Party. He described himself as a Christian Socialist.
But both of these contenders for our national leadership would indicate that Jesus Christ is by far and above their claims to be a perfect leader. They both believe Jesus Christ is an unparalleled leader in human history. We are blessed to have two Christians as the alternative choice for leader of our nation. The two deputies, Peter Costello and Julia Gillard both rated poorly in the public perception.
THE ELECTION RESULT.
The polls proved accurate. Kevin Rudd and Labor won by a 6% swing with NSW and Queensland showing the way and will have a comfortable 8 seat majority in Parliament. Preferences from the Greens delivered this percentage swing. Writing this just after midnight on polling day, the Senate is not clear, but I would expect a similar result. Preferences in the Senate and postal and absentee votes could take a few weeks to finalize. The coalition’s majority in the Senate remains until July next year so no new policies quickly.
As I visited over 80 polling booths today to encourage booth workers and deliver a car boot fully of ice cold bottles of water and fruit juice, (even a small party like the Christian Democratic Party needs 10,000 volunteers in NSW to man the booths!), I was thrilled to see parents with their children visiting every booth. They were teaching their children about the significance of being a citizen. I became even more assured that God is in control, that every person’s view counts, and that the great winner is democracy.
Rev The Hon. Dr Gordon Moyes, A.C., M.L.C.